By: Sher Ali
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, 2022, has its background in the founding of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by the United States (US) and its Western allies during the Cold War (1947-1991) to provide collective security against the communist Soviet Union. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, NATO continued its offense against Russia by adding former Soviet Union countries as members. In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined NATO. In 2004, seven more countries joined. Belarus, Ukraine, and Georgia were now the last post-Soviet countries left between Russia and NATO. Ukraine and Georgia both wanted to join NATO for a long time making them prime targets for Russia. Ukraine became a NATO partner in 1994 which brought it a step closer to becoming a member. In 2013, it was going to sign an association agreement with the European Union but when it came time to sign the deal Ukraine’s pro-Russian government refused. To prevent NATO’s influence from reaching its borders, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, launched a “special military operation” on Ukraine. The US therefore has had a special role to play in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Other than its role in starting the conflict, one can look at the two radically different responses it has had with regards to it: the first, by President Joe Biden, in whose term in office the full-scale invasion began; the second, by President incumbent of the US, Donald Trump.
Biden’s initial reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was publicized in a press briefing immediately after the event: “The Russian military has begun a brutal assault on the people of Ukraine without provocation, without justification, without necessity.” From the very first, Biden framed and treated the invasion as a humanitarian crisis. According to the United States Department of State, the Biden administration has provided a grand total of $65.9 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since February 2022 which includes air defense missiles, American anti-personnel mines and F-16 fighter jet equipment. In addition to this, it was during Biden’s presidency that the 57-nation Ukraine Defense Contact Group was formed by Biden’s Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, in April 2022. This organization (which consists of all 32 member states of NATO, 25 other countries, and the European Union) has overseen the transfer of $126 billion worth of weapons and equipment to Ukraine, making it one of the largest arms transfers in history. Even during his last days in office, President Joe Biden vowed to commit $7 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. This was seen by many political analysts as a last-minute way for Biden to escalate the war and limit the incoming president’s options on Ukraine while hindering talks with Russia.
Trump, however, from the get-go sought to upend the policy measures taken by his predecessor. Even during his election campaign Trump touted how he would bring a quick end to what Biden could not: “Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled. It will be settled quickly.” Following this agenda, US delegates met with their Russian counterparts on February 18, 2025, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia while not extending an invitation to Ukraine. Ten days later, during a heated press conference in the Oval Office with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Donald Trump highlighted his administration’s policy shift: “What the Biden administration did was terrible. They were giving money but he had no security on the money. Europe as you know gave much less money but they had security. It was in the form of a loan. They get their money back and we didn’t.” Even though the conference ended in a shouting match between the two presidents, with President Trump having the louder voice, if there is any further aid to Ukraine from the US it will be in exchange for the rich natural resources that the former possesses. Still, President Trump, unlike President Biden, is insistent on making a peace deal between the two rivals and bringing a quick end to the war.
However, things might not end up as President Trump had envisioned in the beginning. Firstly, Zelenskyy left the White House earlier than was at first anticipated and without signing the rare earth minerals deal in exchange for US aid. Secondly, as a result of this heated exchange, Trump paused all military aid to Ukraine. How big of a blow will this decision be in Ukraine’s fight against Russia? According to Michael Patrick Mulroy, ABC News’ national security and defense analyst: “Ukraine is already outnumbered vastly: about 3 to 1 on troops, about 5 to 1 on artillery and all the way up to 10 to 1 on tanks and armored personnel carriers. So any pause or disruption or stopping of aid to Ukraine will have a big impact on Ukraine on the battlefield and likely it’ll push Russia further away from the negotiation table as they’ll see this as a win and things going in their direction. So, it could actually extend this war substantially.” This means that President Trump’s efforts to act as a peacemaker might actually have led to an escalation in the intensity of the conflict. The question now is will European countries be able to ramp up their aid efforts enough to replace the US or is this, as many geopolitical analysts are beginning to fear, the start of the Third World War?
The writer is a freelance columnist and can be reached at [email protected]
