By: Hadia Mukhtar
As Biden’s victory in the US elections trigger a sense of jubilation across the world as it signals a return to the doctrine of multilateralism and revival in the faith of globalism especially when the pandemic-stricken world is at its lowest ebb, a careful scrutiny over the future course of events is needful. Even though the office of US president has alternated for 72 years between Democrats and Republicans, one question has always remained unanswered; what difference does it take? Will Biden’s presidency might open exceptionally innovative avenues in the bumpy road that runs between Pakistan and Washington, or things would remain largely the same or get worse?
If history be the guide, it is pertinent that foreign policies are never the outcome of utopian and idealistic moorings of democracy and preservation of fundamental freedom. In reality, they are the manifestation of national interests. In this respect, US foreign policy crafted under Monroe doctrine, Truman Doctrine, Carter Doctrine, Reagan Doctrine and Bush Doctrine is dictated by the dynamics of “real politick”. From asserting its hegemony in the region that called for putting lids on European colonialism to containing Soviet’s influence during the cold war to the imminent threat to the world, “are you with or against us” US foreign policy has not only evolved with the passage of time but it had allowed her to embolden in multiple ways.
Even though Obama’s administration promised to end wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the contours of Af-Pak strategy avidly highlighted in Woodward’s book, “Obama’s War” depicts the reappraisal of the situation. Biden who was the pivotal figure in devising and executing Obama’s strategy, it is apparent that Obama’s decision to sign a strategic partnership with Asian Pacific countries to contain China along with the AF-Pak strategy to increase US troops for counter terrorism might have deep imprints on Biden as he takes the office. Such a move can be both welcoming and alarming. A continued US presence in Afghan can put lids on violence erupting from Afghanistan, however, the same move can embolden India and contain China’s BRI aspirations. Pakistan’s ultimate national interests in the midst rest firmly on two standpoints. One, it does not want a hasty US withdrawal and second, it desires a friendly government at Kabul which ensures that Afghanistan soil does not become a safe haven for terrorists that ultimately mars Pakistan’s international credibility.
With the new realities of China’s OBOR initiative and Doha agreement emerging, it is irrefutable that Biden will look at things from the lens of US security and vital interests. Voices are heard that if Biden’s administration sees threat to US interest emanating from Afghanistan the old “do more” mantra might return and it might not be too easy on China. Thus as China makes inroads into Iran by signing the momentous strategic partnership deal and US responding reciprocally by emboldening India, deploying Israel in the Middle East under the guise of Abraham Accords and polarizing the region against Iran, in these changing regional apparatus, balance of power have to be maintained. More than that, Pakistan needs to play its cards well especially dealing with Afghanistan by ensuring equilibrium through alignment of countervailing alliances.
The writer is a geopolitical and foreign policy analyst based in Karachi. She can be reached at [email protected]
