By: Hadia Mukhtar
Expecting a new trajectory of Pak-US ties under Biden might a too simple-minded assessment given. There is no doubt in the fact that Trump and Biden do not agree much, however, in the case of Pakistan, there is rare point of convergence. Following Trump’s course, a Biden’s administration might expect a continued and determined assistance of Islamabad with respect to peace process in Afghanistan and dismantling terrorist outfits at home.
Points of convergence between US and Pakistan can be attributed to Afghan peace process, establishing bilateral trade and shared collaboration on counter terrorism strategies while divergence may owe to US-China rivalry and US-India strategic partnership. Nevertheless, the political analysts are of a view that Biden’s presidency might usher in a different dimension for Pak-US bilateral ties which could strength considerable or get worse.
If history be the guide, no US president who has stepped in the White house has much knowledge about Pakistan than Biden. Along with crafting a Pakistan-centred legislation, he had made numerous visits to Pakistan, established deep ties with both civilian and military leaders and have experienced all the pits and falls in the US-Pakistan ties with a level of closeness. Therefore, with Biden making inroads into the president office with a political-savvy mindset, it is pertinent that he will advance the US foreign policy centred on multilateralism that establishes US dominance along with propagating the esteemed culture of human rights and democracy in the world. As a result, one can envision both avenues of prosperity and strains in the Pak-US bilateral ties.
As long as Pakistan continue to engage with US on Afghan Peace process and demonstrate progress by dismantling the terrorist infrastructure at home with credible compliance with FATF requirements, the bilateral ties might see a revival. Furthermore, with Biden aiming to trim the toxic overtones of US relationship with Beijing, along with saving the Iran Nuclear Deal and appear to be more willing to broach human right concerns with India, the Pak-US ties might get a further boost.
On the other hand, the pessimistic scenario should not be ignored. The fact the Washington had always viewed its ties with Islamabad under the lens of Afghanistan will continue to loom. This means that if the peace process falters than Washington might not think twice before blaming the former. With the “do more” mantra taking precedence at the backdrop of US-India strategic ties aiming to contain China’s influence in the region and its BRI aspirations, concerns are heard that Islamabad might struggle to get Biden’s ear on Indian’s atrocities in Kashmir valley and state sponsored terrorism. As Pakistan faces insurmountable challenges in the form of compromised economic sovereignty and continued security concerns which create barriers for democracy to establish within the grassroots of our political system, it is apparent that Pakistan might not get much leverage, it might otherwise enjoy from the Afghanistan card.
Either way, Pak-US ties are heading towards inflection point. Even though Pakistan has long been viewed as a key driver for Afghan Taliban insurgency, with US troops making an exit from Afghanistan, the old ties need a new basis. First things first, there are two points where Pakistan stands uncompromised over Afghan peace process. It does not want a hasty US withdrawal and it desires a friendly government at Kabul as the lessons from the aftermath of US-Afghan War were too painful to forget. In the midst, with Biden’s broader and strategic visions for South Asia focused on countering China, Pakistan risks as being positioning as a bystander on the sidelines looking in.
However, with the light being always there at the end of the tunnel, prospects of a happier and prosperous partnership cannot be ignored. This means that there are many tension-free, safe spaces where two states can bilaterally cooperate. In the pandemic-hit world where reviving the faith in globalism is a pre-requisite, areas of cooperation range from education, to green energy to IT to non-official channels such as business and digital marketing can surpass the conventional security-centric ties between US and Pakistan. As the ties get recalibrated under this new trajectory, it will then become undeniable that Pakistan will continue to remain important for Biden’s American and this time for the right reasons.
The writer is a geo-political analyst based in Karachi. She can be reached at [email protected]
