By: Hadia Mukhtar
As Mr Joe Biden, the former US senator, twice chairman and the member of the influential Foreign Relation Committee and two-tern vice president makes inroads into US presidency, it is obvious that he brings in considerable foreign policy experience. Having met around 150 leaders across the world along with himself familiar with critical disaster zones and war-prone hotspots, Biden knows how to play the cards of US foreign policy well, that making its irrefutable that for both Republicans and Democrats it had always been America First in the globalized world.
Mr Biden’s victory had received massive international applause at the obvious fact that the world still looks upon the leadership of the invincible power that dictates the reigns of the world laden founded upon the principles of multilateralism and international engagement. For the US and the world, Mr Biden stands for repairing and mending the fractures in relationship with US allies especially in the Asian Pacific, Europe, NATO and North America.
However, if prudence and rational-actor model is applied in the course of foreign relations, one can easily conclude that reverting to the dynamics of internationalist approach in the post Second War era will be too simple-minded and overstated. It is because the world is ushered into a vantage point where Trump-incited nationalist sentiments along with the traction protectionism has gained over the course of disrupted four years at the backdrop of novel pandemic has altered the foundations of international political security and economy. Thus, the world Biden has oversaw during his apt career as US senator and vice president is starkly different and his antidotes may appear non-functional.
As America prepared the stage for global withdrawals from trade and security agreements and pacts, the power vacuums created were filled by emerging powers such as China and Russia. As the world leading democracies subdue, global economy sees a massive downturn and the competition for corona vaccine has created new power rivalries, Trump’s “America First” mantra has not only made “America alone” but has complicated the foreign policy outlook for Biden. It is irrefutable that US foreign policy has always had a realist outlook as enshrined in Henry Kissinger’s book, “Diplomacy”, therefore US can maneuver the crisis-ridden international situation in its favor by playing its cards close to its chest.
Even though during the Cold War, Democrats were largely seen to appease Moscow, Biden’s presidency may not follow suit. It is probable that Biden may desire President Putin to pay the price for “weakening Western Democracy” by creating fault lines in Europe, weakening NATO alliance and for its alleged interference in the US 2016 elections. In addition, Russia still has over 1500 deployed nuclear weapons along with the tactical nukes even before Trump left the INF treaty signed by the two states in 1987. In this situation, the US foreign policy may steer towards creating fractures in Sino-Russian relations, allowing the Cold War history to repeat itself by taking advantage of Putin’s rising resentment over Russia’s exacerbating economic dependence on China.
With respect to US foreign policy with China, a Biden administration will follow a cautioned outlook given the fact that it cannot ignore the mutual dependence both states share with respect to trade. By understanding the prudence in the fact that trade wars are a zero-sum game and hurting one’s economy will not be without costs, lowering the flagrant rhetoric with China and becoming predictable with the world’s emerging economy through back channel diplomacy is the need of the hour. As Biden vaguely calling for an international coalition to deal with China and the emerging democracies which “China cannot ignore” which reflects his caution against China’s deployment of 5G and its revisionist ambitions in BRI that is chipping away US influence, outline, Biden’s desire to turn US allies with China, Pakistan finds itself treading on a tightrope that calls for seeking refuge in prudence with respect to leveraging Afghanistan card and harnessing maximum possibilities in its court.
Even though Biden’s victory lead to Israel losing its closest ally, Kamala Harris statement that US-Israel ties are “rock solid” withstanding the test of time, Biden’s attempt to re-enter into Us-Iran deal will cast a shadow over this relationship. But more than that US administration will now face a contestable effort in persuading Iran as the latter neither seeks nor desires an alliance with US. With China and Russia making inroads into Iran’s economic and defence sectors along with the joint maritime exercises in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Indian Ocean, Iran finds itself settling comfortably in the centre on the new triple axis.
As Us has always emerged as a winner even in the most complicated situations, this time a balanced approach contrasting with Trump’s tilted one towards Israel will seek to steer matters in US favour. In return for recognizing Israel, he might ask for Saudi Arabia, Oman or Morocco to seek concessions for Palestinians. By re-opening the de-facto US embassy in Jerusalem, breathe life into Palestinians diplomatic missions in Washington and restore US funding for Palestinian cause, US can win its soft image back by preserving the vitality of the two-state solution.
The Biden-Kamala nexus might carry a “reassessment” of US foreign policy in the greater Middle East that will focus on stretching a pragmatic line on the Iran issue. In doing so, it might distance itself from the deeper geopolitics centred on Saudi-led Middle Eastern order. However, given the fact that US has always safeguarded its wider interests in the Middle East through the Carter Doctrine, it will not remain aloof to the evolving dynamics of the volatile region. This is reflected by Biden’s condemnation of deserting Us Kurdish allies in Northern Syria and his concerns about deploying US nuclear weapons in Turkey. This is evident by his condemnation towards Turkish military incursions in North Syrian Kurdish border which highlights his disdain for President Erdagon.
As Covid-19 has drastically altered the rules of the international order, only prudence, conscientious and pragmatic approach in the US foreign policy will allow her to reaffirm the unipolar contours of the world order. In this respect, Robert Kagan was apt when he reminisces US rise after the second surprise attack on its soil after the Pearl Harbor one when he wrote, “US didn’t change after 9/11, and in fact it became more itself”.
The writer is a geopolitical and foreign policy analyst residing in Karachi. She can be reached at [email protected]
